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Goldman Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years at its March meeting this week, bringing forward its previous forecast for an April decision. Ota said he expects the BOJ to abolish its yield curve control policy, which the central bank employs to target longer-term interest rates, by buying and selling bonds as necessary. Still, he expects the central bank will "not explicitly commit" to the size of its Japanese government bond purchases or the cessation of its ETF purchases. While the central bank has effectively loosened its yield curve control policy over longer term interest rates over the past 16 months, it has kept interest rates at -0.1% and still maintains an upper limit for 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 1% as a reference. While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda meets with his other eight board members eight times a year, the central bank updates its economic outlook only four times: in January, April, July and October.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Tomohiro Ota, Ota, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan Locations: Ueno Park, Tokyo, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWage growth in Japan is a good milestone for sustainable inflation, says Tomohiro OtaTomohiro Ota, Senior Japan Economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses how wage hikes by several companies impacts the Bank of Japan and equities.
Persons: Tomohiro Ota Tomohiro, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Senior Japan, Goldman, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, Tomohiro Ota Tomohiro Ota
Speculation is swirling that the Bank of Japan may move to exit the world's last negative rate policy as early as next week, when policymakers gather for their March meeting. "We continue to expect that the BOJ will terminate NIRP in April," Goldman Sachs economists led by Tomohiro Ota wrote in a Tuesday note, referring to the negative interest rate policy. "While a March rate hike cannot be ruled out, we believe that the BOJ's communications at this juncture are not clear enough to justify assuming the March hike as the base case scenario." "The Bank of Japan has no right to keep monetary policy where [they are now]. The economy is not in any shape or form to have that ultra-loose monetary policy and quantitative easing, which we have been calling a major policy error," Amir Anvarzadeh, a market strategist at Asymmetric Advisors, told CNBC Tuesday.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Tomohiro Ota, Kazuo Ueda, Amir Anvarzadeh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asymmetric Advisors, CNBC Locations: NIRP, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs expects BOJ to make a 'bigger' policy decision in April after 2024 spring wage talksTomohiro Ota of Goldman Sachs says wage growth led inflation is key for the Bank of Japan's decisions, and expects 2024 spring wage talks to be to crucial to the timing of policy tightening.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, BOJ, Tomohiro Ota Organizations: Bank of
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect Japan's fiscal package to be spread over a few years: EconomistTomohiro Ota of Goldman Sachs Japan says fiscal projects in Japan are likely to be spread over three to five years, and their impact on economic growth will be diluted.
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